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Original Article
Online Published: 21 Oct 2026
 


Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023)

Rayan I. Alodail, Tif S. Alghamdi, Ryof S. Al Fares, Rotana J. Masood, Rana A. Alshehri, Abdullah S. Alswat, Razan J. Almutairi, Khulud M. Alsulami, Tammam M. Alhalawani, Mazen Althobaiti.


Abstract
Objective:
This study aimed to assess trends in the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease (CHD) among children in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1990 to 2023 and to project future trends to 2050.
Methods:
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 study for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates were estimated for 1990–2023, and trends were assessed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Analyses were conducted by sex and age group. Future age-standardized rates were projected to 2050 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing state space (ETS) models.
Results:
The age-standardized mortality rate in the GCC decreased from 6.01 per 100,000 in 1990 to 2.40 in 2023 (EAPC −3.22%), while prevalence increased slightly from 260.35 to 271.71 per 100,000 (EAPC 0.14%). Incidence declined from 22.15 to 20.25 per 100,000 (EAPC −0.23%). Saudi Arabia had the highest mortality (3.85), Kuwait the highest prevalence (293.53), and Oman the highest incidence (22.65) per 100,000. Mortality was highest among neonates and infants. By 2050, ARIMA projected GCC mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates of 1.40, 282.92, and 21.57 per 100,000.
Conclusion:
CHD mortality and incidence rates in the GCC have declined over three decades, while prevalence has shown a slight increase. Despite improvements, CHD remains an important health burden in the region, highlighting the need for continued prevention, early diagnosis, and access to specialized pediatric cardiac care.

Key words: Congenital heart anomalies, congenital heart disease, gulf cooperation council, incidence, mortality, prevalence


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Alodail RI, Alghamdi TS, Fares RSA, Masood RJ, Alshehri RA, Alswat AS, Almutairi RJ, Alsulami KM, Alhalawani TM, Althobaiti M. Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023). IJMDC. Online First: 21 Oct, 2026. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1788467988

Web Style

Alodail RI, Alghamdi TS, Fares RSA, Masood RJ, Alshehri RA, Alswat AS, Almutairi RJ, Alsulami KM, Alhalawani TM, Althobaiti M. Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023). https://www.ijmdc.com/?mno=333555 [Access: October 21, 2026]. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1788467988

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Alodail RI, Alghamdi TS, Fares RSA, Masood RJ, Alshehri RA, Alswat AS, Almutairi RJ, Alsulami KM, Alhalawani TM, Althobaiti M. Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023). IJMDC. Online First: 21 Oct, 2026. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1788467988


Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Alodail RI, Alghamdi TS, Fares RSA, Masood RJ, Alshehri RA, Alswat AS, Almutairi RJ, Alsulami KM, Alhalawani TM, Althobaiti M. Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023). IJMDC, [cited October 21, 2026]; Online First: 21 Oct, 2026. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1788467988


Harvard Style

Alodail, R. I., Alghamdi, . T. S., Fares, . R. S. A., Masood, . R. J., Alshehri, . R. A., Alswat, . A. S., Almutairi, . R. J., Alsulami, . K. M., Alhalawani, . T. M. & Althobaiti, . M. (2026) Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023). IJMDC, Online First: 21 Oct, 2026. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1788467988


Turabian Style

Alodail, Rayan I., Tif S. Alghamdi, Ryof S. Al Fares, Rotana J. Masood, Rana A. Alshehri, Abdullah S. Alswat, Razan J. Almutairi, Khulud M. Alsulami, Tammam M. Alhalawani, and Mazen Althobaiti. 2026. Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023). International Journal of Medicine in Developing Countries, Online First: 21 Oct, 2026. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1788467988


Chicago Style

Alodail, Rayan I., Tif S. Alghamdi, Ryof S. Al Fares, Rotana J. Masood, Rana A. Alshehri, Abdullah S. Alswat, Razan J. Almutairi, Khulud M. Alsulami, Tammam M. Alhalawani, and Mazen Althobaiti. "Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023)." International Journal of Medicine in Developing Countries Online First: 21 Oct, 2026. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1788467988


MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Alodail, Rayan I., Tif S. Alghamdi, Ryof S. Al Fares, Rotana J. Masood, Rana A. Alshehri, Abdullah S. Alswat, Razan J. Almutairi, Khulud M. Alsulami, Tammam M. Alhalawani, and Mazen Althobaiti. "Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023)." International Journal of Medicine in Developing Countries Online First: 21 Oct, 2026. Web. 21 Oct 2026 doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1788467988


APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Alodail, R. I., Alghamdi, . T. S., Fares, . R. S. A., Masood, . R. J., Alshehri, . R. A., Alswat, . A. S., Almutairi, . R. J., Alsulami, . K. M., Alhalawani, . T. M. & Althobaiti, . M. (2026) Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023). International Journal of Medicine in Developing Countries, Online First: 21 Oct, 2026. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1788467988




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