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2026, Vol: 10, Issue: 6
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Review Article
Online Published: 01 May 2026
 


Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050

Muath Awadh Alsurur, Walaa Fahad Aljuhani, Anas Saleh Alghamdi, Saad Dafer Alaliany, Leen Saleh Al-wagdani, Abdulelah Abdullah Ali, Atheer Jafar Almalki, Abdulkarim Ibrahim Alqurashi, Ziyad Mohammed Alosaimi, Alanoud Mutlaq Alharthi, Muhannad Almubarak.


Abstract
Objective: This study aimed to describe the burden and trends of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter (AF/AFL) across the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1990 to 2023.
Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using modelled estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 study (1990-2023), accessed via the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Results Tool. Age-standardized rates for deaths, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted. Data from 1990 and 2023 were then compared. Age-specific DALY rates were assessed across groups. The leading risk factors contributing to AF/ AFL deaths in 2023 were summarized. Finally, risk-attributable death rates were projected to 2050.
Results: DALY rates increased in most countries, most notably in Saudi Arabia (from 65.73 to 97.62) and Oman (from 90.03 to 126.61). Death rates rose markedly in the United Arab Emirates (from 1.74 to 3.89) and Saudi Arabia (from 2.83 to 5.36). The burden of AF/AFL increased steeply with age. In Oman, the DALY rate per 100,000 population rose from 2.66 in the 30-34 age group to 16,289.63 in those aged ≥95 years. Elevated systolic blood pressure and high body mass index were the leading attributable risks. Forecasts suggested continued increases in death rates attributable to metabolic risks, with widening uncertainty intervals by 2050.
Conclusion: The burden of AF/AFL has risen in the GCC since 1990. This trend is driven by aging-related disability and mortality, alongside a risk profile dominated by modifiable metabolic factors. Regional prevention should prioritize blood pressure control and promote healthy weight management.

Key words: Atrial fibrillation, GCC, incidence, death, DALYs


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Alsurur MA, Aljuhani WF, Alghamdi AS, Alaliany SD, Al-wagdani LS, Ali AA, Almalki AJ, Alqurashi AI, Alosaimi ZM, Alharthi AM, Almubarak M. Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050. IJMDC. 2026; 10(6): 1658-1667. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1772284444

Web Style

Alsurur MA, Aljuhani WF, Alghamdi AS, Alaliany SD, Al-wagdani LS, Ali AA, Almalki AJ, Alqurashi AI, Alosaimi ZM, Alharthi AM, Almubarak M. Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050. https://www.ijmdc.com/?mno=312199 [Access: June 30, 2026]. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1772284444

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Alsurur MA, Aljuhani WF, Alghamdi AS, Alaliany SD, Al-wagdani LS, Ali AA, Almalki AJ, Alqurashi AI, Alosaimi ZM, Alharthi AM, Almubarak M. Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050. IJMDC. 2026; 10(6): 1658-1667. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1772284444


Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Alsurur MA, Aljuhani WF, Alghamdi AS, Alaliany SD, Al-wagdani LS, Ali AA, Almalki AJ, Alqurashi AI, Alosaimi ZM, Alharthi AM, Almubarak M. Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050. IJMDC. (2026), [cited June 30, 2026]; 10(6): 1658-1667. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1772284444


Harvard Style

Alsurur, M. A., Aljuhani, . W. F., Alghamdi, . A. S., Alaliany, . S. D., Al-wagdani, . L. S., Ali, . A. A., Almalki, . A. J., Alqurashi, . A. I., Alosaimi, . Z. M., Alharthi, . A. M. & Almubarak, . M. (2026) Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050. IJMDC, 10 (6), 1658-1667. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1772284444


Turabian Style

Alsurur, Muath Awadh, Walaa Fahad Aljuhani, Anas Saleh Alghamdi, Saad Dafer Alaliany, Leen Saleh Al-wagdani, Abdulelah Abdullah Ali, Atheer Jafar Almalki, Abdulkarim Ibrahim Alqurashi, Ziyad Mohammed Alosaimi, Alanoud Mutlaq Alharthi, and Muhannad Almubarak. 2026. Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050. International Journal of Medicine in Developing Countries, 10 (6), 1658-1667. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1772284444


Chicago Style

Alsurur, Muath Awadh, Walaa Fahad Aljuhani, Anas Saleh Alghamdi, Saad Dafer Alaliany, Leen Saleh Al-wagdani, Abdulelah Abdullah Ali, Atheer Jafar Almalki, Abdulkarim Ibrahim Alqurashi, Ziyad Mohammed Alosaimi, Alanoud Mutlaq Alharthi, and Muhannad Almubarak. "Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050." International Journal of Medicine in Developing Countries 10 (2026), 1658-1667. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1772284444


MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Alsurur, Muath Awadh, Walaa Fahad Aljuhani, Anas Saleh Alghamdi, Saad Dafer Alaliany, Leen Saleh Al-wagdani, Abdulelah Abdullah Ali, Atheer Jafar Almalki, Abdulkarim Ibrahim Alqurashi, Ziyad Mohammed Alosaimi, Alanoud Mutlaq Alharthi, and Muhannad Almubarak. "Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050." International Journal of Medicine in Developing Countries 10.6 (2026), 1658-1667. Print. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1772284444


APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Alsurur, M. A., Aljuhani, . W. F., Alghamdi, . A. S., Alaliany, . S. D., Al-wagdani, . L. S., Ali, . A. A., Almalki, . A. J., Alqurashi, . A. I., Alosaimi, . Z. M., Alharthi, . A. M. & Almubarak, . M. (2026) Trends of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and their associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 with forecasting to 2050. International Journal of Medicine in Developing Countries, 10 (6), 1658-1667. doi:10.24911/IJMDC.51-1772284444




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